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2022 Governor · WI

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 655 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.397) = -1.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.397| = 1.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81470, race ID 8986 (538 database).