2022 Governor · OK
WPA Intelligence · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 52%
R+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.78% · Republican 55.45%
R+13.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 52 = -13.00
- Actual margin = 41.785 − 55.449 = -13.664
- Signed miss = -13.00 − (-13.664) = 0.664
- Absolute miss = |0.664| = 0.664
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81484, race ID 8977 (538 database).