Skip to content

2022 Governor · NH

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 51%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.47% · Republican 56.98%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 51 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.472 − 56.985 = -15.513
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-15.513) = -0.487
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.487| = 0.487

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81486, race ID 8973 (538 database).