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2022 Governor · MA

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 32%

D+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.69% · Republican 34.62%

D+29.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 32 = 27.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.691 − 34.618 = 29.073
  3. Signed miss = 27.00 − (29.073) = -2.073
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.073| = 2.073

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81487, race ID 8968 (538 database).