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2022 Senate · GA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 47.6%

D+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 47.6 = 1.90
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = 1.90 − (0.957) = 0.943
  4. Absolute miss = |0.943| = 0.943

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81488, race ID 8925 (538 database).