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2022 Governor · GA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 52%

R+5.6

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 52 = -5.60
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -5.60 − (-7.535) = 1.935
  4. Absolute miss = |1.935| = 1.935

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81488, race ID 8960 (538 database).