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2022 Governor · OH

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,125 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 58%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 58 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-25.029) = 2.029
  4. Absolute miss = |2.029| = 2.029

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81492, race ID 8976 (538 database).