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2022 Governor · AZ

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 51%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 51 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (0.668) = -3.669
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.669| = 3.669

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81502, race ID 8954 (538 database).