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2022 Governor · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (10.531) = 0.469
  4. Absolute miss = |0.469| = 0.469

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81503, race ID 8969 (538 database).