2022 Senate · GA
Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 49%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.957) = -5.957
- Absolute miss = |-5.957| = 5.957
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81504, race ID 8925 (538 database).