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2022 Governor · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 324 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 44.9%

D+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 41.78% · Republican 55.45%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 44.9 = 3.30
  2. Actual margin = 41.785 − 55.449 = -13.664
  3. Signed miss = 3.30 − (-13.664) = 16.964
  4. Absolute miss = |16.964| = 16.964

The poll overstated the Democrat by 17.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81505, race ID 8977 (538 database).