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2022 Senate · PA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,152 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.913) = 1.087
  4. Absolute miss = |1.087| = 1.087

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81507, race ID 8945 (538 database).