2022 Governor · AZ
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,157 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%
D+0.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.668) = 0.331
- Absolute miss = |0.331| = 0.331
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81508, race ID 8954 (538 database).