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2022 Senate · GA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,168 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.957) = 3.043
  4. Absolute miss = |3.043| = 3.043

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81509, race ID 8925 (538 database).