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2022 Senate · MO

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,079 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42.3% · Republican 53.3%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.18% · Republican 55.43%

R+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.3 − 53.3 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.177 − 55.432 = -13.255
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-13.255) = 2.255
  4. Absolute miss = |2.255| = 2.255

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81510, race ID 8936 (538 database).