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2022 Senate · PA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 1,097 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 47.7%

R+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 47.7 = -2.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -2.20 − (4.913) = -7.113
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.113| = 7.113

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81511, race ID 8945 (538 database).