2022 Senate · FL
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 659 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 51%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.27% · Republican 57.68%
R+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 41.267 − 57.680 = -16.413
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-16.413) = 8.413
- Absolute miss = |8.413| = 8.413
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81513, race ID 8924 (538 database).