2022 Governor · FL
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 659 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 54%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.97% · Republican 59.37%
R+19.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 39.971 − 59.374 = -19.403
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-19.403) = 7.403
- Absolute miss = |7.403| = 7.403
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81513, race ID 8959 (538 database).