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2022 House · NY-22

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 432 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.48% · Republican 43.38%

D+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.482 − 43.383 = 6.099
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (6.099) = -2.100
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.100| = 2.100

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81514, race ID 9275 (538 database).