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2022 Senate · AZ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 48.1%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 48.1 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (4.888) = -5.287
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.287| = 5.287

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81521, race ID 8919 (538 database).