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2022 Governor · PA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 43.2%

D+7.7

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 43.2 = 7.70
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 7.70 − (14.771) = -7.071
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.071| = 7.071

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81529, race ID 8979 (538 database).