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2022 Governor · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 817 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.86% · Republican 54.76%

R+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.857 − 54.759 = -10.902
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-10.902) = 3.903
  4. Absolute miss = |3.903| = 3.903

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81535, race ID 8984 (538 database).