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2022 Senate · OH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 43.8% · Republican 52.7%

R+8.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.8 − 52.7 = -8.90
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -8.90 − (-6.112) = -2.788
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.788| = 2.788

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81540, race ID 8942 (538 database).