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2022 Governor · OH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 54.8%

R+20.8

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 54.8 = -20.80
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -20.80 − (-25.029) = 4.229
  4. Absolute miss = |4.229| = 4.229

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81540, race ID 8976 (538 database).