Skip to content

2022 Senate · OR

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 975 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 33.6%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.83% · Republican 40.92%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 33.6 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.833 − 40.924 = 14.909
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (14.909) = 2.091
  4. Absolute miss = |2.091| = 2.091

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81544, race ID 8944 (538 database).