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2022 Senate · AZ

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 814 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 47.9%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 47.9 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (4.888) = -4.187
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.187| = 4.187

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81545, race ID 8919 (538 database).