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2022 Governor · NY

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 826 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.1% · Republican 44%

D+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.70% · Republican 41.43%

D+7.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.1 − 44 = 5.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.697 − 41.429 = 7.268
  3. Signed miss = 5.10 − (7.268) = -2.168
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.168| = 2.168

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81550, race ID 8975 (538 database).