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2022 Senate · NC

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 1,183 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 51.9%

R+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.27% · Republican 50.50%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 51.9 = -4.90
  2. Actual margin = 47.273 − 50.499 = -3.226
  3. Signed miss = -4.90 − (-3.226) = -1.674
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.674| = 1.674

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81552, race ID 8940 (538 database).