Skip to content

2022 Governor · NV

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 43.5% · Republican 48.7%

R+5.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.5 − 48.7 = -5.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -5.20 − (-1.510) = -3.690
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.690| = 3.690

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81558, race ID 8972 (538 database).