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2022 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,027 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.80% · Republican 44.08%

D+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.801 − 44.079 = 11.722
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (11.722) = -3.723
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.723| = 3.723

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81569, race ID 9238 (538 database).