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2022 Governor · ME

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 922 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 44%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.69% · Republican 42.45%

D+13.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.692 − 42.449 = 13.243
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (13.243) = -5.243
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.243| = 5.243

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81570, race ID 8966 (538 database).