2022 House · ME-1
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 477 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 39%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.94% · Republican 37.02%
D+25.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 39 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 62.935 − 37.019 = 25.916
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (25.916) = -6.915
- Absolute miss = |-6.915| = 6.915
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81570, race ID 9176 (538 database).