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2022 House · ME-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 433 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.05% · Republican 46.95%

D+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.051 − 46.949 = 6.102
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (6.102) = -5.102
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.102| = 5.102

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81570, race ID 9177 (538 database).