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2022 Governor · OH

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,123 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 58.5%

R+24.5

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 58.5 = -24.50
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -24.50 − (-25.029) = 0.529
  4. Absolute miss = |0.529| = 0.529

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81571, race ID 8976 (538 database).