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2022 Governor · NH

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 40.4% · Republican 55.7%

R+15.3

The certified result

Democrat 41.47% · Republican 56.98%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.4 − 55.7 = -15.30
  2. Actual margin = 41.472 − 56.985 = -15.513
  3. Signed miss = -15.30 − (-15.513) = 0.213
  4. Absolute miss = |0.213| = 0.213

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81572, race ID 8973 (538 database).