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2022 Senate · NC

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,098 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.8% · Republican 51.2%

R+6.4

The certified result

Democrat 47.27% · Republican 50.50%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.8 − 51.2 = -6.40
  2. Actual margin = 47.273 − 50.499 = -3.226
  3. Signed miss = -6.40 − (-3.226) = -3.174
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.174| = 3.174

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81574, race ID 8940 (538 database).