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2022 Governor · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,214 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 52.1%

R+6.6

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 52.1 = -6.60
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -6.60 − (-7.535) = 0.935
  4. Absolute miss = |0.935| = 0.935

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81579, race ID 8960 (538 database).