2022 Senate · CA
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 37%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.89% · Republican 39.11%
D+21.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 37 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 60.894 − 39.106 = 21.788
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (21.788) = -5.787
- Absolute miss = |-5.787| = 5.787
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81582, race ID 9480 (538 database).