2022 Senate · FL
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 54%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.27% · Republican 57.68%
R+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 54 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 41.267 − 57.680 = -16.413
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-16.413) = 6.413
- Absolute miss = |6.413| = 6.413
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81583, race ID 8924 (538 database).