2022 Governor · FL
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 56%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.97% · Republican 59.37%
R+19.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 56 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 39.971 − 59.374 = -19.403
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-19.403) = 5.403
- Absolute miss = |5.403| = 5.403
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81583, race ID 8959 (538 database).