2022 Senate · IL
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 40%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.82% · Republican 41.50%
D+15.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 40 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 56.823 − 41.500 = 15.323
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (15.323) = 2.677
- Absolute miss = |2.677| = 2.677
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81585, race ID 8928 (538 database).