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2022 Governor · IL

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 39%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.91% · Republican 42.37%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 39 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.907 − 42.369 = 12.538
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (12.538) = 7.462
  4. Absolute miss = |7.462| = 7.462

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81585, race ID 8963 (538 database).