2022 Senate · NY
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 39%
D+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.65% · Republican 37.67%
D+14.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 39 = 20.00
- Actual margin = 51.648 − 37.666 = 13.982
- Signed miss = 20.00 − (13.982) = 6.018
- Absolute miss = |6.018| = 6.018
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81587, race ID 8939 (538 database).