2022 Governor · NY
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 45%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.70% · Republican 41.43%
D+7.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 45 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 48.697 − 41.429 = 7.268
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (7.268) = 2.732
- Absolute miss = |2.732| = 2.732
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81587, race ID 8975 (538 database).