2022 Senate · PA
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 48%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.913) = -3.913
- Absolute miss = |-3.913| = 3.913
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81589, race ID 8945 (538 database).