Skip to content

2022 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,103 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 49.7%

R+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 49.7 = -3.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -3.20 − (0.957) = -4.157
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.157| = 4.157

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81592, race ID 8925 (538 database).