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2022 Senate · GA

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,077 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 48.9%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 48.9 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.957) = -0.957
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.957| = 0.957

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81594, race ID 8925 (538 database).