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2022 Governor · GA

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,077 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 53.7%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 53.7 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-7.535) = -0.465
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.465| = 0.465

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81594, race ID 8960 (538 database).