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2022 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.535) = 2.535
  4. Absolute miss = |2.535| = 2.535

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81595, race ID 8960 (538 database).