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2022 Senate · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 46.5%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 46.5 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (4.888) = -3.187
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.187| = 3.187

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81596, race ID 8919 (538 database).